Los ntawm 10,000 Yuan mus rau 18 Yuan thiab Tom qab ntawd mus rau 80 Yuan: Plaub caug- Xyoo Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam ntawm Ib Leeg Optical Fiber - Los ntawm cov khoom siv tswv yim rau cov nqi sib tw, thiab tam sim no mus rau cov txiaj ntsig nyuaj rau kev siv fais fab: Tuam Tshoj txoj kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag puas tau rov qab los li cas?

Jul 09, 2026

Tso lus

Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb 1: Kev Hloov Kho Kev Lag Luam Ua Yeeb Yam: Kev kho qhov muag fiber ntau yog ib zaug siab - cov khoom lag luam muaj nqis. Overcapacity ua rau poob mus rau 18 yuan, ua rau kev lag luam poob. Kev nce siab hauv AI suav lub zog tau thawb tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev yuav khoom mus txog 80 yuan. Lub voj voog ntev ntawm kev tsim kho qhov muag fiber ntau cov kab ua ntej ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev ua tiav qhov luv luv -lub sij hawm muab khoom-xav tau qhov sib txawv.

Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb 2: Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Tshawb Fawb: Tuam Tshoj tau paub txog plaub qhov kev tsim ua ntej loj, ua tiav tus kheej -tsim thev naus laus zis thoob plaws tag nrho cov kev lag luam. Nws tau koom nrog hauv kev tsim cov qauv kev kho qhov muag thoob ntiaj teb, thiab G.654.E ultra-tsis tshua muaj fiber ntau tau raug xa mus rau kev lag luam loj.

Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb 3: Kev Siv Hluav Taws Xob Qhib Txoj Kev Tshiab: Kev sib txuas lus ib txwm muaj kev loj hlob tau nce siab, thaum qhov kev thov rau kev siv computer ntse DCI optical fiber tau nce. Peb tus tswv lag luam loj tau ua tiav qhov kev sim nyob hauv network ntawm hollow-core optical fiber, hloov mus rau ultra- qis latency xam cov pawg. Tam sim no, loj- nplai ntau lawm yog qhov nyuaj vim tus nqi thiab kev txhawb nqa ecosystem txwv.

Los ntawm 10,000 yuan mus rau 18 yuan, thiab tom qab ntawd mus rau 80 yuan- qhov no tsis yog ib qho kev ua si yooj yim, tab sis keeb kwm ntawm kev hloov pauv thiab kev hloov pauv nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag.

Nqe Rollercoaster:Kev ua si thiab thim rov qab ntawm Plaub Cycles Qhov nce thiab poob ntawm cov nqi kho qhov muag fiber ntau yog dominated los ntawm broadband cov tswv yim thiab kev sib txuas lus hauv xov tooj ntawm tes. Telecom tus neeg teb xov tooj nruab nrab qhov kev yuav khoom yog qhov ntsuas kev sib tw, thiab 1-2 xyoo lag luam hauv kev tsim kho muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv ua kom muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm . 1. Siab- theem hloov pauv lub sijhawm (ua ntej 2020): Los ntawm 2013 txog 2018, "Broadband Tuam Tshoj" kev pib ua ke nrog 4 lub hauv paus kev tsim kho ntawm TH, thiab ntau lab FT. tsav xav tau. Hauv xyoo 2018, tus nqi xa khoom nruab nrab tau nce mus txog 116 yuan. Loj - nplai muaj peev xwm nthuav dav los ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim cov kev phom sij zais ntawm kev muaj peev xwm dhau. Hauv xyoo 2019, 4G thiab kev tsim kho dav dav tau mus txog qhov txaus ntshai, qhov xav tau poob qis, thiab thaum ntxov 2020, fiber ntau kho qhov muag tau raug nqi ntawm 40-50 yuan, sai sai poob mus rau 23 yuan ntau npaum li cas nyob rau hauv lub xyoo, raws li cov kev sib txuas lus ib txwm faib nyiaj sib faib faded . 2. Downward bottoming lub sij hawm: 2000000000000000000000000000000000 5G tsuas yog coj cov kev txhawb nqa uas twb muaj lawm, tsis tuaj yeem nqus tau ntau dhau. Kev sib tw nqi siab ntawm cov tuam txhab ua rau poob qis rau 18-20 yuan hauv 2021; nyob rau hauv 2023, tus nqi txwv rau centralized procurement los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Ntauwd yog 23 yuan, ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj thiab ntau lawm kab kaw nyob rau hauv kev lag luam; Los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2024, cov nqi qis tshaj ntawm 16-18 yuan, tus nqi qis tshaj hauv keeb kwm. 3. Lub sijhawm hauv qab-tawm thiab rov qab los (2025): Kev sib txuas lus ib txwm tau nce siab, thaum qhov kev thov rau kev suav fais fab DCI kev sib txuas tau tawg, nrog cov ntaub ntawv chaw fiber ntau optic xav tau nce 75.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Nyob rau hauv 2005, Tuam Tshoj Mobile tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev yuav khoom yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 20 yuan, rebounding mus rau 25-35 yuan nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo. Poob yuam kev muaj peev xwm sib cog lus, kos ib qho kev hloov pauv hauv kev muab khoom thiab kev xav tau. 4. Lub sijhawm rov ua haujlwm hnyav (2026): AI ntse suav pawg tau txhawb nqa qhov kev thov loj rau fiber ntau optics, ua ke nrog kev lag luam muaj peev xwm nthuav dav, nthuav dav cov khoom siv-xav tau qhov sib txawv. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev yuav khoom mus txog ib ncig ntawm 80 yuan nyob rau hauv lub xyoo, nrog cov nqi muag khoom siab tshaj 120 yuan; G.654.E thiab tshwj xeeb fiber optic nqi nce. Cov neeg tsav tsheb hauv kev lag luam tau hloov tag nrho los ntawm kev sib txuas lus broadband thiab mobile mus rau kev suav fais fab infrastructure. Nws tsuas yog siv ib xyoos thiab ib nrab mus los ntawm 18 yuan mus rau 80 yuan. Qhov no tsis yog rov qab los; nws yog qhov kev thov rau kev suav fais fab uas tau tig lub rooj.

Txoj Kev Ua Phem Txhaum Cai thiab Kev Tiv Thaiv: Los ntawm "Ua raws li" mus rau "Kev Koom Tes Hauv Kev Tsim Cov Cai" Qab ntawm tus nqi hloov pauv yog qhov hloov pauv hauv kev hais lus thev naus laus zis. Tshaj li plaub caug xyoo dhau los, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam fiber ntau tau ua tiav tag nrho -txoj kev thim rov qab ntawm kev xa khoom, kev zom, ntes, thiab koom nrog thiab ua cov qauv.

Tshuab High Ground: Preforms Txiav txim siab txog yav tom ntej Qhov tiag barrier rau kev lag luam fiber ntau tsis yog fiber ntau kos duab, tab sis preforms.

Daim Ntawv Thov Hloov:Los ntawm "Internet ntawm Tib Neeg" mus rau "Computing Power Network" Cov kev hloov pauv hloov pauv hauv cov nqi fiber ntau yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv cov lus xav tau qis dua . 1. Kev Sib Txuas Lus: Lub hauv paus ruaj khov, Kev Loj Hlob Peaked. Raws li qhov kawg ntawm 2025, tag nrho qhov ntev ntawm cov kab hluav taws xob kho qhov muag thoob ntiaj teb tau mus txog 74.99 lab mais (MIIT's "2025 Statistical Bulletin of the Communications Industry"); peb tus tswv lag luam loj tau tswj hwm siab - theem kev yuav khoom ntawm cov kab hluav taws xob kho qhov muag xyoo ntawd. Muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nkag mus ntawm FTTH thiab lub sijhawm ua kom zoo ntawm 5G kev tsim kho, kev lag luam kev loj hlob yog txwv, thiab kev sib txuas lus ib txwm tau maj mam nkag mus rau theem kev saib xyuas cov khoom lag luam . 2. AI Computing: Exponential Demand Explosion, Core Driver ntawm Qhov Round of Fiber Optic Nqe nce. AI suav fais fab pawg txais yuav tus nqaj qaum- Nplooj tiaj tiaj architecture, ua rau muaj kev nce siab nyob rau sab hnub tuaj - sab hnub poob ntawm GPUs. Kev siv fiber ntau ntawm ib qho 10,000- daim npav sib nrug deb tshaj li ntawm cov chaw zov me nyuam cov ntaub ntawv, ua kom cov kev hloov pauv mus rau tag nrho -optical interconnection. Hla- lub sijhawm suav lub zog hauv cheeb tsam ua rau muaj kev nce siab hauv DCI kev sib txuas lus xav tau, nrog rau 400G qaum qaum kev xa tawm thiab 800G nkag mus rau theem pib. G.654.E ultra-tsis tshua muaj fiber ntau tau dhau los ua cov kev daws teeb meem rau kev sib kis mus ntev -. Tsav los ntawm AI, qhov kev thov rau fiber ntau optical hauv cov chaw zov me nyuam thiab DCI (Digital Communication Interface) yog nce sai, ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv ntiaj teb no rau cov ntaub ntawv sib txuas lus optical fiber. AI kev lag luam tseem loj hlob sai, thiab cov kev sib txuas kho qhov muag tau hloov kho dua tshiab los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv xov xwm ib txwm siv rau kev sib txuas ntawm lub zog sib txuas . 3. Kev nthuav dav mus rau ntau qhov xwm txheej thoob plaws huab cua, av, hiav txwv, thiab qhov chaw, qhib txoj hauv kev loj hlob tshiab: Marine scenario: Cov fibers tshiab kho qhov muag txhawb nqa transoceanic submarine cable txuas ntev dua yam tsis muaj rov ua dua. Tsawg- qhov siab qhov siab: Khoov-cov khoom siv kho qhov muag tsis zoo xws li G.657.A2 tau yoog raws qhov kev xav tau ntawm qis- qhov siab ntawm kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag, thiab kev sib txuas lus fiber ntau rau cov drones yog nyob rau theem tshawb nrhiav. Kev sib txuas lus quantum: Hollow-core optical fibers tau sim siv hauv quantum key faib tes hauj lwm. Raws li cov koom haum kev lag luam, thoob ntiaj teb kev xa khoom fiber ntau yuav tsum ncav cuag kwv yees li 660 lab core kilometers los ntawm 2025, nrog rau Tuam Tshoj tus account rau ntau tshaj ib nrab, tuav nws txoj hauj lwm raws li lub ntiaj teb cov khoom loj tshaj plaws.

Hollow -core Fiber: Los ntawm "Concept Myth" mus rau "Computing Power Essential" Yog tias G.652.D yog "nyiaj nyuj" cov khoom ntawm fiber optic kev lag luam, hollow-core fiber sawv cev rau qhov chaw siab tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej.

1. Cov Ntsiab Cai: Kev cuam tshuam kev sib txuas lus Innovation Cov khoom siv niaj hnub- silica fiber ntau tso siab rau lub iav tub ntxhais rau lub teeb kis tau tus mob, thiab nws qhov kev sib kis tau raug txwv los ntawm cov khoom siv hauv lub cev, xws li Rayleigh tawg thiab infrared absorption. Hollow- tub ntxhais fiber ntau siv huab cua ua lub teeb kis nruab nrab, thiab kev nthuav tawm ceev ntawm lub teeb pom kev hauv huab cua yog siab dua hauv iav, ua rau muaj kev sib kis qeeb uas yog kwv yees li 30% qis dua li cov khoom siv fiber ntau.

2. Milestone Network Projects rau Peb Tus Neeg Ua Haujlwm Loj Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab: Hauv xyoo 2025, nws yuav ua thawj zaug hauv tebchaws tsim los tiv thaiv-resonant hollow-core fiber network sim hauv Guangdong, tshawb xyuas qis-latency daim ntawv thov scenarios. Qhov ntsuas qhov nruab nrab poob ntawm cov kab xeem yog 0.085dB / km, nrog rau qhov zoo tshaj plaws mus txog 0.065dB / km. Nws cov yam ntxwv ntawm polarization dispersion yog qhov zoo tshaj rau cov khoom siv fiber ntau, thiab nws qhov kev sib kis tau zoo nyob ze rau ITU-T cov kev cai dav dav rau ib hom fiber ntau. Hauv Shenzhen-Dongguan seem ntawm Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, S+C+L peb-band nyob network pov thawj ntawm hollow{18}}core optical fiber tau ua tiav. Raws li kev sim, ib qho - wavelength tus nqi mus txog 1.2Tb / s, kis tau tus mob deb tshaj 130 kilometers, thiab tag nrho unidirectional kis tau tus mob muaj peev xwm ntawm ib fiber ntau tshaj 100Tb/s. Tuam Tshoj Telecom: Xyoo 2026, nws tau ua qhov kev sim ntawm ultra-ntev ib zaug- ncua kev sib kis ntawm hollow-core optical fiber nrog ib zaug - wavelength tus nqi ntawm 1.2Tb / s, ua tiav ib zaug - ncua kev sib kis tsis pub dhau 20 km. Tuam Tshoj Unicom: Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2025, nws tau ua tiav 4.2-kilometer nyob network tsav ntawm hollow-core optical fiber hauv Nanjing. Kev ntsuas kev sib kis latency raug txo los ntawm kwv yees li 30% piv nrog cov khoom siv kho qhov muag, thiab kev sib raug zoo nrog lub network architecture tau pib tshawb xyuas.

3. Cov Core Bottlenecks uas twb muaj lawm hauv Industrialization Hollow-core optical fiber tseem ntsib ntau yam kev txwv hauv kev txav los ntawm kev sim tshuab mus rau loj- nplai kev lag luam siv: Tus nqi siab: Tus nqi lag luam tam sim no yog kaum txhiab yuan ib core-kilometer, pua pua mus rau txhiab zaus ntawm G.652.D optical fiber. Cov tseem ceeb txwv qhov tseem ceeb yog qhov nyuaj ua ntej- txheej txheem kos duab thiab tus nqi qis ntawm qhov loj - nplai ntau lawm. Muaj kev txwv tsis pub nkag mus rau hauv kev tsim kho thiab kev saib xyuas: fusion splicing yuav tsum muaj cov cuab yeej tshwj xeeb; optical fibers yog rhiab heev rau micro- dabtsi yog khoov thiab lateral siab, yuav tsum tau optimized kev tiv thaiv lug tiv thaiv huab cua qhov vau; thiab ntev- kev cia siab rau lub sij hawm nyob rau hauv complex teb thiab cov ntaub ntawv chaw ib puag ncig tseem yuav tsum tau mus xyuas kom meej. Kev lag luam tsis tiav nyob rau sab saud thiab qis qis: Muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv txhawb nqa xws li siab - lub zog kho qhov muag amplifiers thiab siab siab siab -speed optical modules sib xws nrog hollow-core optical fibers; Cov txheej txheem kev lag luam tseem nyob hauv nws cov theem pib, nrog cov khoom tsis sib xws thiab cov kev qhia tshwj xeeb ntawm cov tuam ntxhab, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom siv.

4. Irreplaceable tus nqi nyob rau hauv lub xam lub hwj chim era: qhov kev thov heev ntawm AI ntse xam tej pawg ntawm kev sib kis latency, bandwidth, thiab lub zog noj qhib lub rigid daim ntawv thov scenarios rau hollow -core optical fibers: synchronous ua hauj lwm ntawm GPU pawg yuav tsum tau nanosecond -qhib cov yam ntxwv, latency tsawg kis tau tus mob. hollow-core optical fibers yog ib qho kev xaiv tseem ceeb rau kev suav fais fab kev sib txuas; 10,000-daim npav-theem kev txawj ntse hauv pawg tsim cov petabyte- theem kev sib tham sib loj heev, thiab lawv qhov dav -spectrum kis tau tus mob tuaj yeem pab txhawb kev xav tau kev hloov kho bandwidth yav tom ntej. Raws li kev lag luam kev kwv yees, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hollow-core optical fiber ntau yuav tsum loj hlob sai, muaj peev xwm ncav cuag ntau lab nyiaj los ntawm 2030. 06

Kev lag luam yav tom ntej Outlook: Ntev npaum li cas Qhov no yuav siab - Kev vam meej mus ntev? Tom qab tus nqi ntawm optical fiber nyob rau hauv centralized procurement tsoo los ntawm 80 yuan, kev ua lag luam feem ntau txhawj xeeb txog qhov sustainability ntawm no puag ncig ntawm tus nqi nce.

1. luv-lub sij hawm (1-2 xyoos): Siab- theem hloov pauv, yuav nce siab dua li lub caij nplooj zeeg. Kev lag luam cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau sib txawv txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, thiab kev nthuav dav ntawm optical fiber preforms ntev li 2 xyoos lossis ntau dua. Tsis muaj qhov loj -scale tshiab muaj peev xwm los hauv online hauv 2026. Lub voj voog kev tsim kho ntawm lub ntiaj teb AI suav suav lub zog yog 2-3 xyoos. Kev nqis peev hauv kev suav fais fab muaj cov yam ntxwv mus sij hawm ntev thiab tsis yog qhov kev xav tau luv luv. Raws li Corning qhov kev kwv yees, los ntawm 2030, cov ntaub ntawv chaw sib cuam tshuam yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam nce ntxiv ntawm 4 billion rau 6 billion US dollars.

2. Nruab nrab-lub sijhawm (2027-2028): Cov nqi yuav poob qis hauv theem, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab yuav hloov pauv nce siab. Cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav uas tau raug ncua ib ntus thaum lub sijhawm kev lag luam poob hauv 2023-2024 yuav maj mam tso tawm hauv 2027-2028. Kev xa khoom thiab kev thov yuav maj mam rov qab mus rau qhov sib npaug, thiab cov nqi yuav raug kho, tab sis nws nyuaj rau rov qab mus rau qhov keeb kwm qis ntawm 18 yuan. Yog tias 6G ua ntej kev lag luam thiab submarine cable xav tau tshaj qhov kev cia siab, lub voj voog kev vam meej yuav txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.

3. Ntev-lub sij hawm: Kev lag luam tus cwj pwm tsis zoo yog qhov tsis muaj zog, thaum nws cov cwj pwm kev loj hlob tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb. AI, 6G, qhov qis- qhov chaw siab tshaj kev lag luam, thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntawm huab cua, av, hiav txwv, thiab huab cua ua kom lub hauv paus rau ntev - kev xav tau. Kev lag luam txoj kev loj hlob logic yog hloov los ntawm kev sib txuas lus ib txwm khiav mus rau kev suav lub zog loj hlob, thiab cov tsoos voj voog qis - tus qauv sib tw nqi yuav tsum yooj yim. Xav txog tus nqi lag luam tam sim no, qhov no qhia tau hais tias kuv lub teb chaws kev lag luam fiber ntau tau hloov pauv los ntawm qhov qis dhau los - tus qauv kev sib tw nqi mus rau cov khoom siv nruj- qhov kev thov sib npaug qhov twg cov khoom tsis tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau, thiab kev lag luam tus nqi hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau nce ntxiv.

Xaus: Lub voj voog tsis dhau, lub voj voog tshiab tau pib. Los ntawm 10,000 yuan mus rau 18 yuan, thiab tom qab ntawd mus rau 80 yuan-plaub caug xyoo ntawm optical fiber yog microcosm ntawm kev hloov pauv thiab kev kho dua tshiab ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tsim khoom. Nyob rau hauv lub 10,000 yuan era, core technologies thiab ntau lawm muaj peev xwm tau tswj los ntawm lwm tus neeg, thiab preforms tsis tau kiag li nws tus kheej tsim los yog loj- tsim. Nyob rau hauv lub 18 yuan era, Tuam Tshoj muaj lub ntiaj teb no loj tshaj plaws tsim muaj peev xwm, tab sis poob rau hauv vicious involution, nrog rau tag nrho cov kev lag luam raug kev txom nyem. Nyob rau hauv lub 80 yuan era, thev naus laus zis hais lus hwj chim, tus txheej txheem kev koom tes txoj cai, thiab ntau lawm muaj peev xwm tswj thaum kawg tau los rau hauv peb tus kheej tes, tab sis cov kev cov nyom tiag tiag twb nyuam qhuav pib: yuav ua li cas tswj rationality nyob rau theem siab, tsis txhob rov hais dua qhov yuam kev ntawm "Great Leap Forward nyob rau hauv Production Peev," thiab yuav ua li cas txav los ntawm ib tug "optical fiber ntau lub teb chaws." Kaj ntug ntawm hollow-core optical fiber yog illuminating plaub caug xyoo tom ntej. Raws li domestically tsim hollow-core optical fiber ua tiav loj- nplai daim ntawv thov nyob rau hauv ntse xam cov chaw zov me nyuam, raws li cov ntaub ntawv muaj peev xwm kis tau ntau zaus, raws li thawj coj mus muag hollow-core optical fiber ntau kab mus rau hauv lub lag luam, thiab raws li patent deployment rau marine daim ntaub ntawv accelerates -kev lag luam fiber ntau yog nyob rau hauv Suav teb. mus rau "tus thawj coj." Plaub caug xyoo ntawm kev nce thiab nqis tau qhia peb qhov tseeb yooj yim: tus nqi yuav voj voog, tab sis thev naus laus zis yuav tsis rov qab; Cov voj voog yuav hloov pauv, tab sis lub hauv paus xav tau ntawm lub tshuab hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob tsuas yog pib xwb.